Five years after first oil, Guyana produces about 645,000 barrels a day, all of it from a single offshore licence, the Stabroek block. Between 2020 and 2023 the country added an average of 98,000 barrels a day each year, making it the third-fastest growing oil producer outside OPEC over that period according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2022 its economy grew by 62.3 per cent in real terms, the highest rate in the world that year according to the International Monetary Fund figures the EIA cites.
Few petroleum provinces have moved from discovery to this scale so quickly. The interesting questions now are less geological than institutional: who will control the block, how fast the partners will develop it, and what Guyana does with the money.
How Stabroek grew
ExxonMobil made the first significant discovery in 2015 at what is now the Liza project. Since then, Exxon and its partners, Hess and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, have made more than 30 further discoveries in the block. Guyana's latest estimate of recoverable oil and gas resources is more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and exploration of the country's offshore waters continues.
Development has followed a repeatable template. Each project uses a floating production, storage and offloading vessel, built to a standard design and installed on a schedule that has so far been met with unusual reliability. The partners plan combined production capacity of about 1.3 million barrels a day by the end of 2027, through three further projects: Yellowtail, Uaru and Whiptail. If they deliver, Guyana would become the second-largest crude producer in Central and South America after Brazil.
Why Guyana matters for the global balance
The EIA's near-term outlook expects growth in liquids supply outside OPEC+ of 1.4 million barrels a day in 2024 and 1.1 million in 2025. Most of that comes from the United States, but Canada, Brazil and Guyana are each expected to add about 0.3 million barrels a day through 2025. That non-OPEC+ growth is one reason the EIA does not expect strong upward pressure on crude prices, even with OPEC+ maintaining voluntary cuts.
Guyana's barrels have particular value because they are low-cost and relatively light, sweet crude, attractive to many refiners. Floating production also means each new project adds a discrete, predictable increment of supply. For OPEC+, managing the market means accommodating that growth by holding back its own barrels, which partly explains why the group's voluntary cuts have lasted as long as they have.
The comparison with Canada is useful. The EIA expects Canadian growth to come largely from oil sands output once the Trans Mountain expansion opens, roughly tripling the takeaway capacity available to the producing region. Canadian growth is therefore a story about pipelines catching up with existing production. Guyana's growth is a story about entirely new fields coming on stream, one vessel at a time. Both add supply outside OPEC+ control, but Guyana's increments are easier to schedule and harder for anyone outside the partnership to influence.
The arbitration
The most immediate risk to Stabroek's growth is corporate. Chevron agreed to acquire Hess, which holds 30 per cent of the block. ExxonMobil, with 45 per cent, and CNOOC, with 25 per cent, have filed arbitration claiming pre-emption rights over Hess's stake under the block's operating agreement. The EIA notes that the arbitration may delay Chevron's deal.
The dispute matters because of what Stabroek is. It is the single most valuable asset in Hess's portfolio and the main reason Chevron wanted to buy the company. Exxon, as operator, has a strong interest in who its partners are. The outcome will determine whether the block is run by two American majors and a Chinese state company, or whether Exxon and CNOOC enlarge their own shares.
For Guyana, the immediate effect is limited. Exxon remains operator, and the projects already sanctioned will continue. But prolonged uncertainty about the partnership could slow decisions on later developments, particularly if the partners disagree about pace or about how to treat the block's large gas resources.
The money question
Guyana's growth has transformed public finances. Oil revenue flows into a sovereign fund established under the Natural Resource Fund Act, and the government draws from it to finance infrastructure, including roads, a gas-to-energy project to supply domestic power, and social spending. The scale is unprecedented for a country of around 800,000 people.
The risks are familiar from other petro-states. A sudden rise in public spending can drive up domestic prices and the exchange rate, crowding out agriculture and other non-oil activity. Institutions built for a small economy may struggle to manage large procurement programmes. And the production sharing contract signed in 2016, widely criticised in Guyana for terms seen as generous to the companies, constrains how much of the value the state captures. Successive governments have said they will not reopen it, but have promised better terms for future licences.
The border
There is also a geopolitical dimension. Venezuela has a long-standing claim to the Essequibo region, which covers most of Guyana's territory and the land adjacent to much of its offshore acreage. Caracas escalated the dispute in late 2023 with a referendum on the claim. The International Court of Justice is hearing the case, and the two governments agreed in December 2023 not to use force.
For investors, the risk is low but not zero. The Stabroek block lies in waters Guyana considers its own, and operations continue normally. But the dispute adds a political premium to new licences near the maritime boundary, and it gives Guyana's government a strong interest in keeping its partnership with the United States close.
What to watch
Three developments will shape Guyana's next five years. The first is the arbitration ruling, which determines Stabroek's ownership. The second is the delivery of Yellowtail, Uaru and Whiptail on schedule, which would take capacity to around 1.3 million barrels a day. The third is how the government handles a rapid increase in oil revenue without destabilising the rest of the economy.
Guyana's geology has been generous. Its institutions now carry most of the risk.