Models
Market modelling programme
The Institute is developing open, reproducible models of North American power markets and global gas markets to support its research on prices, adequacy, and investment.
Overview
The programme has two components. The first is a set of zonal production-cost style power market cases, beginning with PJM and NYISO. The second is a gas market view that combines benchmark price histories with supply and demand balances. Both are built entirely on published public data, so that every input can be traced to its source and every result can be reproduced independently.
The models are at the development stage. Their current outputs are used to validate data and model structure. The Institute has not yet published price forecasts from the programme; these will follow once the inputs described below are finalised.
Power
Power market modelling
Scope
The power cases represent wholesale markets at the zonal level: PJM transmission zones and NYISO load zones A to K in the first instance. The same framework has been extended to ERCOT, SPP, MISO and ISO-NE, and zone definitions have been prepared for CAISO, the wider Western Interconnection, and the Canadian provincial systems.
Fleet data
Generator fleets are drawn from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-860 for 2024, filtered by balancing authority, with operable nameplate capacity as the measure of installed capacity. The PJM fleet comprises roughly 3,800 generating units with about 224 GW of nameplate capacity. The NYISO fleet comprises roughly 1,900 units with about 46 GW.
Dispatch framework
Dispatch is solved as a linear optimisation using the open-source PyPSA framework and the HiGHS solver, at hourly resolution. Hourly load is taken from public operator and EIA-930 data: EIA-930 subregion load for PJM, and NYISO integrated zonal load for New York.
Current development stage
The PJM and NYISO cases have been solved to optimality in single-zone (copper-plate) configuration over a one-week, 168-hour sample, balancing generation and load in every hour. Peak demand in the sample week was about 102 GW in PJM and about 18 GW in NYISO. Equivalent single-zone runs have also solved for ERCOT, SPP, MISO and ISO-NE. At this stage the runs test fleet and load data and the structure of the model. They use uniform unit costs rather than fuel-based costs, and they do not produce locational prices.
Next build steps
The move from single-zone to priced zonal cases requires four further inputs. Generating units will be assigned to zones using a documented plant-to-zone mapping. Marginal costs will be derived from published fuel prices and unit heat rates. Transfer limits between zones will be introduced so that transmission constraints bind. The fleet year and the load year will be aligned on a common study year, and the PJM load data will be completed with the OVEC zone, which is not reported separately in the EIA-930 subregion series. Locational price outputs will be released once zonal mapping and fuel cost inputs are finalised.
Gas
Gas market modelling
Price benchmarks
The price dataset holds Henry Hub daily spot prices from the EIA through 22 September 2026. International coverage currently comes from the World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet): the monthly Europe natural gas index from 1960 and the Japan LNG price from 1977, both through August 2026. These World Bank series are distinct from the TTF and JKM hub assessments. TTF and JKM daily prices are not yet in the dataset.
Supply and demand balances
The balance covers North America. It includes United States production, consumption and LNG exports from EIA data, Canadian production from the Canada Energy Regulator, and monthly United States citygate prices. The roll-up of these series into the global balance table has been reconciled exactly against the underlying EIA figures.
Development stage
Balances for Europe and other regions, drawing on Eurostat and JODI, are the next addition. Regional hub basis for North America (Waha, AECO, Dawn, Dominion South and Chicago), a split of North American imports into pipeline and LNG, Mexican supply, and Canadian consumption and trade are further items in the build sequence.
Outputs
Integrated outputs in development
The power and gas components are designed to feed a sequence of integrated outputs, each built on the one before it.
- Zonal prices. Hourly zonal energy prices, produced once plant-to-zone mapping, fuel costs and interzonal limits are in place.
- Capacity. Capacity market and resource adequacy analysis derived from the modelled energy prices.
- Renewable credits. Renewable energy credit analysis built on the same modelled price and dispatch results.
- Revenue. Asset-level revenue views that combine energy, capacity and credit outcomes.
- Transmission. Network detail introduced from public power-flow cases.
Each output will be published once its underlying inputs have been completed and documented.
Approach
Approach and standards
Open data. Every input is drawn from publicly available sources, including EIA, the independent system operators, the World Bank and the Canada Energy Regulator. Series that are not openly available are not used.
Reproducibility. The models are built on open-source tools, and each dataset can be rebuilt from its original download.
Documented assumptions. Every numerical input is recorded with its source. Where an open source for an input is not yet available, the gap is recorded and scheduled in the build sequence rather than filled by estimate.