The European Commission has set a target that would reshape electricity demand in parts of the continent, and it has done so in an industrial policy document. The AI Continent Action Plan, published on 9 April, says the Commission will propose a Cloud and AI Development Act with the goal of at least tripling the EU's data centre capacity in the next five to seven years, prioritising highly sustainable data centres. It also confirms plans for AI gigafactories, each with about 100,000 advanced AI chips.
The next day, the International Energy Agency published its Energy and AI report, which offers the first consistent estimate of what that kind of growth means for power. Read together, the two documents set out an ambition and a constraint.
What the Commission plans
The action plan has five pillars, and the first is computing infrastructure. The Commission says 13 AI Factories are already being deployed around Europe's supercomputers, to support start-ups, industry and researchers. Seven consortia were selected in December 2024 and six more in March 2025.
The gigafactories are a step up. The Commission describes them as large-scale facilities with approximately 100,000 state-of-the-art AI chips, four times more than current AI factories, integrating computing power and data centres to train complex models at unprecedented scale. A call for expressions of interest from consortia opened on 9 April. The InvestAI initiative is to mobilise €20 billion for up to five gigafactories across the Union.
InvestAI itself was launched by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the AI Action Summit in Paris on 11 February, with the aim of mobilising €200 billion of investment in AI. The Commission's February release said the €20 billion fund would finance gigafactories through a public-private partnership it compared to a CERN for AI, drawing on EU programmes such as Digital Europe, Horizon Europe and InvestEU, with member states able to contribute cohesion funds.
The Cloud and AI Development Act is the measure aimed at commercial capacity. The Commission opened a public consultation on it running until 4 June.
What the IEA says about Europe
The IEA's report gives the baseline. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity worldwide in 2024, about 1.5 per cent of global consumption. Europe accounted for 15 per cent of that, which works out to roughly 62 TWh. The United States accounted for 45 per cent and China for 25 per cent.
In the IEA's base case, global data centre demand more than doubles to about 945 TWh by 2030. Europe's consumption grows by more than 45 TWh, or about 70 per cent, compared with roughly 240 TWh of growth in the United States and 175 TWh in China. Japan, the other large advanced market the IEA singles out, adds around 15 TWh, an increase of about 80 per cent. Europe's growth is therefore large in absolute terms but slower in percentage terms than the other major markets. Across advanced economies, data centres drive more than 20 per cent of electricity demand growth to 2030.
Tripling capacity versus a 70 per cent increase
The Commission's target and the IEA's projection do not measure the same thing. Capacity is the power data centres can draw at full load. Consumption depends on how intensively that capacity is used. Still, the gap is wide. Tripling capacity in five to seven years implies growth far faster than the 70 per cent rise in consumption the IEA projects for Europe by 2030. If European data centre consumption rose in line with a tripling of capacity from about 62 TWh, it would approach 190 TWh. That would be a large new load on grids that, in several member states, are already struggling to connect new demand.
The IEA flagged that problem in general terms. It estimates that, unless risks are addressed, around 20 per cent of planned data centre projects worldwide could face delays because of grid constraints. It notes that new transmission lines take four to eight years in advanced economies, and that waiting times for transformers and cables have doubled in the past three years.
Where the strain shows
In Europe, data centre growth is already concentrated. Ireland shows how quickly a single sector can come to dominate a national grid. Its Central Statistics Office reported last July that data centres consumed 21 per cent of the country's metered electricity in 2023, up from 18 per cent in 2022 and 5 per cent in 2015. That is more than all urban dwellings combined, which used 18 per cent. A tripling of EU capacity concentrated in a handful of hubs could produce similar shares in other regions. A gigafactory with 100,000 chips will need a site with a large grid connection, reliable supply and, ideally, low-carbon power. Few places can offer all three quickly.
The Commission's emphasis on highly sustainable data centres points towards sites near abundant renewable or nuclear generation. The best of those sites are often far from the existing hubs, and getting power and fibre to them takes time.
The policy gap
The action plan is about investment, skills, data and regulation. It sets a capacity target without yet explaining how the power for that capacity will be supplied, connected and paid for. The IEA's report shows why that question matters. Its projection for Europe is substantial but manageable. A tripling of capacity, if used, would push demand well beyond it.
The Cloud and AI Development Act consultation is the first opportunity to close that gap. Proposals that tie faster permitting to energy efficiency, flexible operation and location in areas with spare grid capacity would align the AI target with Europe's grid and climate goals. Proposals that treat power as a given would not.
What to watch
The gigafactory call will show where consortia want to build and how they plan to power their sites. The Cloud and AI Development Act, once proposed, will show whether the Commission links capacity growth to energy conditions. And national grid operators' connection queues will show whether Europe's networks can absorb the ambition. The capital for AI infrastructure in Europe is being lined up. The electricity is the harder part.