Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations showed no sign of falling in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency's Global Methane Tracker 2026, published on 4 May 2026. The IEA estimates that oil, gas and coal operations emitted 124 million tonnes of methane during the year. Oil was the largest source at 45 Mt, followed by coal at 43 Mt and natural gas at 36 Mt. A further 20 Mt came from bioenergy, mostly from the incomplete combustion of traditional biomass for cooking and heating.
The report was launched at a high-level event on methane convened by France's G7 presidency in Paris. It comes as energy markets deal with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the IEA said has removed close to 20% of global LNG supply from the market.
Gas security angle
This year's Tracker puts unusual emphasis on the energy security benefits of cutting methane. According to the IEA, around 110 bcm of gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. The agency estimates that a global effort to cut methane from oil and gas operations could make nearly 100 bcm of gas available to markets each year, with a further 100 bcm from eliminating non-emergency flaring. Together, those volumes would be about double the supply cut off by the effective closure of the Strait.
These volumes would take time to capture, because they require equipment and infrastructure to be installed across many facilities. In the short term, the IEA estimates that nearly 15 bcm could be made available quickly if exporting countries with spare export capacity and importing countries implemented readily accessible abatement measures across their gas systems.
"This is not only a climate issue: there are also major energy security benefits that can come from tackling methane and flaring, especially at a time when the world is urgently looking for additional supply amid the current crisis," said Tim Gould, the IEA's chief energy economist.
Abatement potential
The IEA estimates that around 70% of fossil fuel methane emissions, nearly 85 Mt, could be abated with existing technologies. That includes three-quarters of emissions from oil and gas and about half of coal emissions. Based on average energy prices in 2025, more than 35 Mt could be avoided at no net cost, because the value of the captured gas exceeds the cost of the measures. The IEA said the economics are even more favourable in 2026 because of higher prices.
Upstream activities account for 80% of methane emissions from oil and gas. The most cost-effective measures include leak detection and repair programmes, replacing gas-driven pumps and other equipment with electric versions, installing vapour recovery units and using associated gas for power generation rather than venting or flaring it. Implementing all available upstream measures would cut the global average upstream methane intensity of oil and gas production from around 1% to below 0.2%, the IEA said.
Who emits
Around 70% of fossil fuel methane emissions came from the top 10 emitting countries, more than 85 Mt in total. China is the largest emitter, driven by coal mining, followed by the United States and Russia. Data availability varies widely: the IEA describes measured data for China as limited, for the United States as moderate and for Russia as non-existent.
Methane intensity, the amount emitted per unit of energy produced, varies by a factor of more than 100 between the best and worst performers. Norway has the lowest upstream intensity, and producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, also perform relatively well. Turkmenistan and Venezuela have by far the highest intensities. The IEA estimates that the global average upstream intensity of oil and gas has fallen by about 10% since 2019, as improvements offset rising output.
The report notes progress in some places, including fewer super-emitting events detected in Algeria and Argentina, and studies suggesting tighter rules and structural changes have slowed the growth of coal mine methane in China.
Pledges and policies
The Global Methane Pledge, launched in 2021 with a goal of cutting global methane emissions 30% by 2030, now has 159 countries plus the EU as participants. Commitments by governments and companies now cover more than half of global oil and gas production, compared with less than 20% in 2021. Canada and the EU have introduced comprehensive upstream regulations, and Brazil, Ghana and Kazakhstan are developing them.
The IEA estimates that if every country implemented tried-and-tested policies, including limits on flaring and venting, leak detection requirements and technology standards, global methane emissions from oil and gas would fall by more than half. Adding policies that rely on more precise data, such as emissions pricing and performance standards, could cut them by more than 75%.
Import standards
The report highlights the growing role of importing countries. From 2030, the EU methane regulation will require imported oil, gas and coal to meet a methane intensity threshold, with monitoring and reporting obligations starting earlier. Japan, Korea and the UK are also examining emissions associated with imported fuels. In the EU, UK, Japan, Korea and China, methane tied to imported oil and gas was 15 Mt in 2024, three times the 5 Mt from domestic production, according to the IEA. The average upstream intensity of imports is around 1.3% for China, 1% for the EU and UK and 0.6% for Japan and Korea.
Satellites and data
The IEA notes the growing number of satellites monitoring methane, from wide-area instruments such as TROPOMI to high-resolution satellites that can pinpoint individual facilities. MethaneSAT stopped operating about a year after launch, but analysis of its data covering basins in 16 countries continues to provide estimates of basin-level intensities, which the IEA says align closely with its own estimates in countries with good coverage. The UN's Methane Alert and Response System notifies governments of large emission events; the IEA estimates that faster responses to alerts in 2025 could have cut emissions by about 6 Mt.
What it means for markets
For gas markets, the report frames methane abatement as a source of supply as well as an environmental measure. With LNG supply disrupted, gas that is currently leaked, vented or flared has a higher value. For exporters such as the United States, methane performance also affects access to markets with import standards, particularly the EU.
What to watch
Key items include whether producing countries adopt rapid abatement measures in response to the supply crisis, the EU's implementing rules on import equivalence, and the outcome of methane discussions at the G7 and at COP31 in Antalya.