Energy Update reported on 10 September 2026 that ISMO had begun collecting project data for IGCEP 2027-37, with stakeholder returns due by 14 September, even though NEPRA had not yet formally notified IGCEP 2025-35 and had raised questions on 7 May 2026. The Grid Code’s annual planning duty does not pause for regulatory backlog. The result is overlapping plan generations that confuse provinces and investors.
According to the same reporting, IGCEP 2025-35 projected installed capacity rising by around 49 per cent from 43,069 MW in 2024 to 64,035 MW by 2035, while hydro CODs slipped relative to the prior plan and distributed solar continued to unsettle load forecasts. NGC reportedly viewed demand decline as temporary; DISCOs reported sharper drops tied to net metering. That disagreement is the heart of Pakistan’s planning risk.
Transition Economics Institute’s advice is procedural: NEPRA should either notify, conditionally notify with addenda, or formally remand 2025-35 on a short clock before 2027 data hardens into another contested draft. Infinite limbo helps no one. Addendum-II’s inclusion of the 269 MW Dhabeji hybrid project shows the plan remains plastic; plasticity needs governance.
Provinces asked for proformas on thermal, hydro, renewable, and hybrid projects should treat the exercise seriously. Garbage data produces garbage optimisation. Inflated COD claims will be discounted eventually; they still distort interim politics.
September 2026’s oddity, starting the next plan before closing the last, can be turned into a virtue if 2027 explicitly scenarios the net-billing world and privatised DISCO loss trajectories. Planning for yesterday’s load shape is finished as a strategy.
Institutional accountability remains the missing hinge. NEPRA, the Power Division, CPPA-G, the system operator, and the DISCOs each hold a piece of the puzzle, yet none owns the full cash-conversion cycle. Until reporting, incentives, and penalties are aligned to the same monthly cash target, reform statements will continue to outrun results. Transition Economics Institute will keep measuring progress by whether billed energy turns into settled rupees, whether fixed generation obligations shrink in line with the demand profile, and whether consumers see durable relief rather than a temporary rebate financed by another round of arrears.