Winter Storm Fern swept across large parts of the United States in late January 2026, bringing ice, snow and extreme cold from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. The storm caused more than 1 million customer power outages, mainly from ice accumulation, falling trees and damage to local distribution lines, according to post-event assessments. Grid operators avoided rolling blackouts and manual load shedding on the bulk power system.
US natural gas demand peaked at 172 billion cubic feet per day on January 24, one of the highest levels ever recorded, according to a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff presentation on winter 2026 events. The US Energy Information Administration reported a record net withdrawal from natural gas storage of 360 Bcf in the week ending January 30, 2026.
The bulk grid held
FERC staff reported that the system experienced 68,169 megawatts of unplanned generation outages during the storm, yet operators were able to keep supply and demand in balance without ordering rotating outages. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas published a post-event report on the storm in late January, and an industry report for America's Power and a study commissioned by the Natural Gas Council also reviewed the event.
The outcome contrasts with Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, when ERCOT ordered massive load shedding after gas production and power plants failed in the cold, leaving millions of Texans without power for days. Since then, Texas has adopted weatherization requirements for power plants and gas facilities, and FERC has approved new reliability standards for cold weather operations across North America. Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 also led to unplanned outages and some load shedding in the Southeast.
Distribution damage
Most of the customer outages during Fern were caused by damage to local distribution networks rather than shortages of generation. Ice is particularly damaging because it adds weight to power lines and tree branches, which then fall onto lines. Restoration of distribution damage is labor-intensive and can take days, especially when roads are icy.
Distribution resilience has become a major area of utility spending. Utilities have increased budgets for tree trimming, pole replacement, undergrounding of lines in some areas and automated switching that can isolate faults. These costs are generally recovered through customer rates, which raises affordability concerns as bills rise.
Gas system performance
The gas system faced its own test. Cold weather increases demand for heating at the same time as it can reduce supply, because wellheads and gathering lines can freeze. Production declines during cold snaps, known as freeze-offs, were a central problem during Uri. During Fern, storage played a large role in meeting demand, as shown by the record weekly withdrawal.
The Natural Gas Council report argued that the gas system performed well under extreme conditions. Power generators depend heavily on gas in winter, both in ERCOT and in PJM, and coordination between gas pipelines and electric grid operators has been a long-running issue for regulators.
Implications for capacity planning
Winter reliability has become a central issue in capacity markets. PJM has changed its capacity accreditation rules to reflect the risk that gas plants fail during extreme cold, and its reserve requirements now account for winter risk as well as summer peaks. In ERCOT, new large loads such as data centers add to demand in all seasons, including winter peaks. ERCOT's planning studies now give more weight to winter scenarios after Uri.
Climate science suggests that while average winter temperatures are rising, cold outbreaks still occur. Some research has linked disruptions of the polar vortex to Arctic warming, though the strength of that link is debated among scientists. For grid planners, the practical lesson from recent winters is that systems must be prepared for both record heat and severe cold.
Prices and markets
Gas prices spiked during the storm as demand surged and some production was curtailed. Power prices in affected markets also rose sharply during the coldest days. The record storage withdrawal reduced inventories heading into the rest of the winter, which affects price expectations for spring and summer. LNG exports, which have grown rapidly, also draw on US supply, and some LNG facilities reported operational disruptions during extreme cold in past events.
Why the review matters now
The FERC presentation came in September, as utilities, gas pipelines and grid operators prepare for the 2026 to 2027 winter. Regulators use these reviews to decide whether cold weather standards need further changes, and grid operators use them to test their assumptions about how much generation will be available on the coldest days. The 68 GW of unplanned outages during Fern is a measure of the gap between installed capacity and what actually ran, which is the key variable in winter adequacy studies.
Forecasters have also flagged a strengthening El Niño heading into the 2026 to 2027 winter. El Niño winters tend to bring milder conditions to the northern United States and wetter, cooler conditions to parts of the South, though individual cold outbreaks remain possible under any pattern.
Lessons from earlier storms
Each major winter event since 2011 has produced a federal review with recommendations, ranging from better communication between gas and electric operators to mandatory freeze protection. Implementation has been uneven across regions, and reviews have repeatedly found that a relatively small number of failure modes, such as frozen instrumentation and fuel supply interruptions, account for much of the lost generation.
Cost of resilience
The event also feeds into debates about who pays for winter resilience. Weatherizing gas wells and power plants, adding dual-fuel capability, holding fuel oil on site and building more gas storage all carry costs. In organized markets, some of those costs are recovered through capacity payments, while in vertically integrated states they flow into regulated rates. Large new loads such as data centers raise the stakes, because they add demand that must also be served during winter peaks.
What to watch
Regulators will apply the lessons from Fern in their winter reliability assessments. Key questions include how much new gas-fired capacity and storage will be added before next winter, how demand response and large-load flexibility perform during cold events, and how utilities will pay for distribution hardening. FERC and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation are expected to report on the event later in the year.