Texas is about to test how much new demand its gas fields can serve at once. On one side are liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants along the Gulf Coast, several of which started up or reached final investment decision in 2026. On the other are data centers seeking connection to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, many of which would be served, directly or through the grid, by gas-fired generation. Both are betting on the same supply growth from the Permian Basin and the Haynesville.
The LNG side
Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture between QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, loaded and dispatched its first export cargo from its terminal in Sabine Pass, Texas, on April 22, 2026. Once its three trains are running, the plant has a total capacity of 18.1 million tons a year, and construction and commissioning continue on Trains 2 and 3.
More capacity is coming. Since March 2026, three large US projects have reached final investment decision, all in Louisiana: Phase 2 of CP2 LNG on March 13, Commonwealth LNG on May 15 and Delfin's first floating LNG vessel on June 3. On May 28, Cheniere Energy Partners signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Bechtel for the first phase of its Sabine Pass expansion, a single train with expected capacity of over 6 million tons a year, part of a project with total peak capacity of up to about 20 million tons a year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the Strait of Hormuz disruption and damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan site could cut cumulative LNG supply by around 140 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030, which strengthens the commercial case for US export capacity.
The data center side
ERCOT reported to the Texas Senate in July 2026 that about 474 GW of large loads were seeking interconnection as of June, of which about 90% were data centers. Most of that will never be built. After Governor Greg Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) and ERCOT on August 3 to verify and audit large load requests, ERCOT paused approvals to energize data centers and crypto facilities of 75 MW or more and issued conditional classifications on September 3. It found that 204 projects totaling 66.4 GW qualified for conditional inclusion as base load and 158 projects totaling 127.9 GW as studied load. Final classifications are due with a verification report to the PUCT by December 10.
Even the conditional base figure is large relative to ERCOT's system. And on the supply side, ERCOT's generation queue shows how much of the response is expected to be gas. ERCOT's Senate presentation listed 77,607 MW of gas generation among 462,785 MW of active generation requests, alongside 161,554 MW of solar and 170,945 MW of storage.
The state is also financing gas plants directly. The Texas Energy Fund has allocated $3.65 billion in 20-year loans at a fixed 3% interest rate, plus $172.56 million in completion bonus grants, supporting 5,516 MW of new dispatchable generation on the ERCOT grid. Projects completed in 2026 include a 460 MW plant interconnected on April 29 and a 456 MW expansion on May 26, according to the PUCT.
The supply that both are counting on
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook that US marketed gas production will grow by 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2027, with the Permian and Haynesville together accounting for more than 70% of growth. Permian output rises by 1.7 Bcf/d in 2026 and 2.2 Bcf/d in 2027, and Haynesville by 1.4 Bcf/d and 1.3 Bcf/d. EIA says Haynesville growth is supported by stable Henry Hub prices, proximity to Gulf Coast LNG terminals and nearby industrial demand.
Pipelines are being built to move that gas. Energy Transfer's Hugh Brinson pipeline, which starts in the Permian, began interstate shipments in June, earlier than EIA expected, and will ramp up through early 2027.
To put data center demand in gas terms: EIA data show US gas-fired plants in the utility and independent power sectors averaged a heat rate of 7,754 Btu per kWh in 2024. On that basis, a 1 GW load running around the clock on gas-fired power would burn about 186,000 MMBtu a day, or roughly 0.18 Bcf/d. Ten gigawatts of data centers served entirely by gas would need close to 1.8 Bcf/d, comparable to one year of Permian production growth in EIA's forecast. This is a simplified illustration. In practice, ERCOT's data centers will draw on a mix that includes a fast-growing share of solar, wind and storage.
Where they compete
The two customers compete less on volume than on infrastructure and timing. LNG plants contract gas years in advance and sit at the end of large pipelines to the coast. Data centers need gas delivered to power plants in North and West Texas, near fiber and land. Pipeline capacity, compression and the gas turbines themselves are the shared constraints.
Prices are the other link. EIA's STEO notes that the West South Central region, which includes Texas, accounts for nearly 20% of US electricity sales growth in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027, even with the data center connection pause. If power sector gas burn rises with data center load while LNG feedgas climbs with new trains, Gulf Coast gas prices will feel both.
For now, Texas has spare supply. Henry Hub averaged about $2.95 per MMBtu in September 2026, according to EIA data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, far below prices in Asia and Europe. That gap is precisely what makes both LNG exports and Texas data centers attractive.
What to watch
The December 10 ERCOT verification report will show how much data center load is real. The start-up schedule of Golden Pass Trains 2 and 3 and the pace of Permian pipeline additions will show how much gas is available to serve it. And the Texas Energy Fund's remaining capacity, capped at 10,000 MW of new generation, will show how much of the supply response the state is willing to underwrite.