For most of the past decade, the story of U.S. natural gas demand growth was written on the Gulf Coast. Every new liquefaction train meant another billion cubic feet a day leaving the country, and the 2026 run of final investment decisions extended that pipeline well into the 2030s. A new tally suggests the export terminals now have a rival of the same size.
East Daley Analytics counted roughly 32 Bcf/d of announced incremental gas demand across the United States by 2031, Natural Gas Intelligence reported this week. Hyperscaler data center campuses and LNG feedgas each account for around 16 Bcf/d, with other power, industrial and residential additions making up the rest.
"It's not just an LNG story anymore," East Daley analyst Jaxson Fryer said during the firm's webinar. "We've been talking about LNG and all the demand there for quite some time. The data centers are known, but the magnitude and why we wanted to display it in this way with announced demand is really important to highlight."
Announced is not built
The headline number is a ceiling. East Daley said only a fraction of the 16 Bcf/d tied to announced data centers is likely to materialize, and it puts its working floor at about 5.5 to 6 Bcf/d. Fryer said the final figure would probably land somewhere in the middle, while adding that the floor could prove conservative as more hyperscaler projects reach final investment decisions.
LNG demand rests on firmer ground. Feedgas flows to export terminals have averaged 18.7 Bcf/d so far this year, up 2.5 Bcf/d from the 2025 average, according to Wood Mackenzie data cited by NGI, and are expected to climb back above 20 Bcf/d by year end. NGI estimates North American export capacity could exceed 35 Bcf/d by 2031. Terminals with signed offtake contracts and financing are a different class of demand from a data center campus that may or may not be built.
The terminals keep arriving. NGI also reported on 5 October that Venture Global has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to place its 3.6 Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG facility in service and begin commercial operations.
Where the demand lands
East Daley's regional breakdown shows how the two sources of growth sit on the map. ArkLaTex is the largest beneficiary at a net 12.8 Bcf/d by 2031, driven by the Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG expansions. The Houston Ship Channel area adds 6.8 Bcf/d, anchored by Corpus Christi LNG and what the firm called an emerging Permian data center corridor.
Away from the coast, data centers dominate. The Northeast gains 4.1 Bcf/d on the strength of data center load in PJM Interconnection, which East Daley called the largest data center bucket in the country. The Southeast adds 1.7 Bcf/d along a hyperscaler corridor through Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The Permian Basin picks up 1.4 Bcf/d of in-basin power for West Texas data centers, while the West Coast and Midwest add 2.0 Bcf/d and 1.9 Bcf/d. Fryer said growth in those last two regions would be "a lot more regional, where there's infrastructure that's not quite there, especially last-mile infrastructure."
Pipeline operators are already sizing for it. NGI noted that Enbridge has said it is advancing more than 50 data center projects that could require up to 10 Bcf/d of incremental capacity.
What the government forecasts say
Federal forecasts frame the near-term version of the same contest. In a March analysis built on its February Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. electricity demand grew about 1.7% a year between 2020 and 2025, compared with 0.1% between 2005 and 2019, and that data centers are driving the growth. Natural gas supplied 40% of U.S. generation in 2025.
The EIA's base case had gas-fired generation rising 1.7%, or 29 billion kWh, between 2025 and 2027. In a scenario where demand in data center regions grows 50% faster than its baseline, that two-year increase rises to 7.3%, or 123 billion kWh, with ERCOT accounting for the largest share. Because new plants take years to build, the EIA assumed the extra power would come from running existing gas plants harder.
Policy can move those numbers quickly. In its August outlook, the EIA cut its forecast for Texas load growth in 2027 to 6% from 14% after Governor Greg Abbott paused new data center projects on August 3. The same release forecast a Henry Hub spot price of $2.87 per MMBtu for the third quarter, 50 cents below the prior month, as Freeport LNG maintenance reduced feedgas demand and production kept rising. It expected inventories to reach 3,985 Bcf in October, the highest pre-winter level since 2016.
Why it matters for LNG decisions
For export developers, the comparison changes the risk around domestic supply. Many U.S. LNG contracts are priced off Henry Hub, so domestic gas prices pass through to foreign buyers. Today's inventories point to ample supply. But if even the midpoint of East Daley's data center range is reached, two large sources of demand will be drawing on the same basins, pipelines and storage at the same time, with the Gulf Coast and the Permian at the center of both.
For data center developers, the competition runs the other way. Turbines, pipeline capacity and firm transport contracts are being booked by export projects with long-term offtake. Campuses that plan to run on gas-fired generation will need to secure that capacity against buyers that have already signed for it.
What to watch
The first test is how many announced campuses reach their own final investment decisions in 2027, which will show whether the data center figure drifts toward East Daley's floor or its ceiling. The second is whether state actions like the Texas pause spread, cutting the power sector's call on gas. The third is the price signal. A Henry Hub that stays below $3 with record storage suggests the market sees no squeeze yet. A sustained move higher as Plaquemines and other new trains ramp would be the first sign that the two demand stories have started to collide.