Eskom's weekly system update of 16 October reported a financial-year-to-date energy availability factor (EAF) of 68.2% for 1 April to 15 October 2026. The figure for the same period last year was 62.63%. Eskom describes the gain as a 5.57% improvement. It is a gain of 5.57 percentage points, which is an 8.9% relative improvement (5.57 ÷ 62.63).
South Africa had gone 518 consecutive days without loadshedding at the time of the update, the run having started on 16 May 2025. Eskom says it has about 5,695 MW of surplus capacity. Its forecast for the evening of 16 October was a peak of 23,966 MW against 26,143 MW available excluding gas, a margin of 2,177 MW, or 9.1% above forecast peak by our calculation.
Unplanned outages are doing most of the work
The improvement comes almost entirely from fewer breakdowns. Between 9 and 15 October, average unplanned outages were 7,707 MW against 10,646 MW in the same week of 2025. That is 2,939 MW lower, a 27.6% fall. The unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF) for that week was 15.73% against 22.22%.
Over the full financial year to date, UCLF was 18.9%. Eskom puts average unplanned outages at 9,064 MW, down from 16,345 MW three years ago, a reduction of 7,281 MW.
Planned maintenance went the other way. Year-to-date planned outages averaged 6,043 MW, or 12.72% of capacity, against 5,309 MW (11.31%) a year earlier and 4,477 MW (9.59%) three years ago. So the fleet is taking 1,566 MW more planned maintenance than it did three years ago, while losing 7,281 MW less to unplanned failures. That is the pattern a recovery plan aims for: more scheduled work to prevent forced outages.
Method: the planned and unplanned figures are Eskom's own year-to-date averages from the 16 October update. We took simple differences. The two capacity loss factors and the EAF do not sum exactly to 100% because of other losses Eskom reports separately.
The diesel bill
Open-cycle gas turbines burn diesel and are Eskom's most expensive generation. Year-to-date OCGT output was 152.41 GWh, which Eskom says is about 85.05% lower than last year. That implies about 1,020 GWh in the same period of 2025 (152.41 ÷ 0.1495), our back-calculation.
Diesel spending fell by R4.87 billion to R1.18 billion. The OCGT load factor is 0.95% against 6.34% a year earlier and a target ceiling of 3%. In the most recent week Eskom did not run OCGTs for generation at all; the small diesel use reported was for an outage.
Dividing spend by output gives about R7.7/kWh this year and R5.9/kWh last year. We would not read much into the rise. Part of this year's diesel is not tied to generation (as in the latest week), and with so little output the fixed and start-up use weigh more heavily. The total spend is the more reliable measure.
Load reduction is a different problem
Load reduction, where Eskom cuts supply to specific areas with high theft or illegal connections, is not the same as loadshedding. It continues in parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Eskom says 193,556 customers, 2.7% of its 7.2 million, are still affected, down from about 1.69 million. 600 of 971 targeted feeders have been removed from the programme, 62% of the target. 521,453 smart meters have been installed against a priority target of 577,347.
The obstacle there is commercial and social, not generation. Eskom reports more than 122,000 planned meter installations delayed by safety incidents, intimidation and work stoppages.
Koeberg
On the morning of 16 October, Koeberg Unit 1 tripped off the grid when an electrical protection system operated during testing linked to Unit 2's planned outage. Eskom said there were no nuclear safety concerns and that it had enough capacity to cover the loss. With Unit 2 already in planned maintenance, both Koeberg units were off at the same time.
The tariff side
The recovery is happening while NERSA consults on Eskom's retail tariff structural adjustment for 2027/28, with a proposed average standard-tariff increase of 8.83% from 1 April 2027 for direct customers and 1 July 2027 for municipalities. A better-performing fleet reduces the case for diesel cost pass-throughs. It does not reduce the fixed costs of the debt and the transmission build-out that the tariff also has to carry.
Eskom's next weekly update is due on 23 October.