August 2026 Ties the Hottest Month on Record at 1.65°C Above Pre-Industrial as El Niño Strengthens

August 2026 was the warmest August on record and tied with July 2023 as the warmest month in the Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset, the service said on 10 September 2026. The global average surface air temperature was 16.96°C, 0.85°C above the 1991 to 2020 average and 1.65°C above the estimated 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial level. It was the first month above 1.5°C since November 2025. The period from June to August 2026 was the joint warmest on record globally, on par with 2024.

The average sea surface temperature over the extra-polar ocean, between 60°S and 60°N, was 21.07°C in August, the highest on record for the month and joint highest for any month, tied with March 2024. Sea surface temperatures were exceptionally high across much of the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions are forecast to strengthen further, potentially into one of the strongest El Niño events on record. August marked the end of western Europe's warmest summer on record, surpassing the previous record from 2003.

In contrast, western Iberia, the Alpine region and north-eastern Europe were wetter than average, with local flooding in some areas. The summer's heat and drought had direct effects on European power systems. Low Rhine levels also restrict barge transport of coal, oil products and other goods, raising logistics costs. El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific. For gas markets, a milder northern hemisphere winter, which El Niño can bring to parts of North America, would reduce heating demand.

The dry conditions led to widespread wildfire activity in several European regions over the summer, Copernicus said. Arctic sea ice extent ranked 12th lowest for August, with particularly low cover in the Russian Arctic sector, and Antarctic sea ice extent ranked fourth lowest, according to Copernicus. Copernicus said it would publish more analysis of Europe's summer at the end of September.