COP31 in Antalya: A Split Presidency, Deferred Texts and a 35% Electrification Goal on the Agenda

The 31st UN climate conference, COP31, will be held in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November 2026. Under an arrangement agreed at COP30 in Belém, Türkiye holds the COP presidency, hosts the World Leaders' Summit and leads the action agenda, while Australia serves as President of Negotiations, with authority over the negotiated outcomes. Australia's climate and energy minister, Chris Bowen, leads the negotiations. The two sides consult throughout, according to the agreed modalities. Australia also leads a pre-COP meeting hosted in the Pacific, in Fiji and Tuvalu, from 5 to 8 October, intended to give ministers a chance to narrow differences before Antalya.

The mid-year negotiations in Bonn in June ended with several major items unresolved. Developing countries have also pressed for the new climate finance work programme agreed in Belém to have its own agenda item at COP31, focused on Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which says developed countries "shall provide" finance. COP30 agreed to create a just transition mechanism to support workers and communities through the shift away from fossil fuels. An electrification goal of that scale would imply very large growth in power demand, generation and grid investment worldwide.

At COP30, dozens of countries backed a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, but it was not included in the decision. The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism entered its definitive period on 1 January 2026, requiring importers of covered goods above a 50-tonne annual threshold to be authorised declarants. Climate finance from developed countries reached a record $136.7 billion in 2024, according to official figures cited by Carbon Brief, but aid cuts since then, particularly by the United States, are likely to have reduced public climate spending.

The Fund for responding to Loss and Damage deferred its first project approvals to its December board meeting, after receiving 176 requests worth about $2.8 billion against $342 million available.