EIA Sees PJM Wholesale Power 41% Higher in 2026 as National Prices Rise 11%

The US Energy Information Administration's October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 6 October, forecasts an average wholesale electricity price of $52/MWh for 2026. That is 11% above 2025, which puts last year at roughly $47/MWh by back-calculation.

The average hides a split. EIA says most hubs are close to 2025 levels, while PJM wholesale prices rise 41% and Northwest Mid-Columbia falls 23%. It attributes the national increase mainly to weather, citing winter storm Fern and record summer heat. Third-quarter electricity consumption was 4% higher than a year earlier.

For gas, EIA expects inventories to begin the heating season 2% above the five-year average. It forecasts Henry Hub at $3.16/MMBtu in 2027, down 32 cents from its 2026 estimate of $3.48.

Oil is the other direction. Brent is forecast at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 higher than in September's outlook, before falling to $84 in 2027. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September.

EIA finalised its inputs on 1 October, so the outlook does not include the G7 announcement of 2 October. The next outlook is due on 10 November.