Kariba's 2027 Water Allocation Falls to 23 BCM While the Lake Holds Three Times Last Year's Volume

Lake Kariba held 22.40 billion cubic metres (BCM) of usable water on 26 October, 34.58% of live storage, according to the Zambezi River Authority's daily reservoir table. A year earlier the lake was 10.28% full, or about 6.66 BCM on TEI's conversion of the ZRA percentages. The reservoir now carries about 3.4 times as much usable water.

The ZRA has nonetheless cut the 2027 water allocation for power generation to 23 BCM, from 36 BCM this year. ZESCO's Kariba North Bank and Zimbabwe Power Company's Kariba South Bank stations will receive 11.5 BCM each. The authority cited the SARCOF-33 regional outlook, which favours below-normal rainfall over southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe this season, with a strong El Niño. It projects that the lake will start 2027 with 16.24 BCM and end it with 5.83 BCM, or 9% of live storage.

As a flow rate, the 2027 allocation is 365 cubic metres per second for each station over a full year. That is 37.5% below the rate ZESCO ran from January to mid-October 2026 and 23.8% below ZPC's, by TEI's calculation from the balances the ZRA reported for 14 October. ZESCO had 3.53 BCM of its 18 BCM left on that date, so it must also run about 10% slower for the rest of this year than it has so far. ZPC had 6.13 BCM left.

Combined turbine releases from 15 to 25 October averaged 1,408 m³/s, close to the 1,433 m³/s that would use up both utilities' remaining 2026 water by 31 December. October releases were about 2% lower than in October 2025.

Zambia's Vice-President Mutale Nalumango told the National Assembly on 23 October that the country has enough electricity to avoid a return to load-shedding. Former energy minister Yamfwa Mukanga has told consumers to prepare for possible cuts in 2027.