EIA Lifts End-November US Gas Storage to 3,840 Bcf After a Warm Start

The US Energy Information Administration's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 10 November 2026 with forecast inputs completed on 5 November, now expects 3,840 billion cubic feet of natural gas to be held in storage at the end of November. That is 67 Bcf more than the Administration forecast last month. The outlook assumes 13% fewer heating degree days across the United States in November than the 10-year average for the month. It puts the Henry Hub spot price at an average of $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% less than last month's forecast and 36% less than last winter.

Residential and commercial consumption is expected to average 36.4 billion cubic feet per day during the November-to-March winter heating season, 3.8% below last winter. The outlook includes 1% fewer heating degree days this winter than last winter, and it forecasts January heating degree days 10% lower than a year earlier.

US dry natural gas production is projected at 113.01 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 117.61 billion cubic feet per day in 2027.

International prices have diverged from Henry Hub. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility near-month futures price averaged $28.51 per million British thermal units in October, up from $11.27 in February 2026, on Bloomberg figures cited in the outlook. By our calculation, that October TTF average is 9.9 times the forecast winter Henry Hub price of $2.87. The Japan-Korea Marker near-month futures price rose from $10.82 in February to $28.59 in October. EIA forecasts US liquefied natural gas exports at 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 19.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, up from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.

The annual Henry Hub average is forecast at $3.37 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $2.88 in 2027. The next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for release on 8 December 2026.