EIA Sees US Power Generation Near 4,390 Billion kWh in 2026, Up 2.7%

The US Energy Information Administration's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 10 November 2026, expects the electric power sector to generate almost 4,390 billion kilowatthours in 2026, up 2.7% from 2025. The Administration attributes the increase to rising commercial demand and higher cooling needs after a warmer-than-average summer. Generation growth is then forecast to slow to 1.2% in 2027, with milder weather reducing residential demand. Most of the growth over the forecast period is expected to come from utility-scale solar plants as capacity increases.

By our calculation, a 2.7% rise to 4,390 billion kilowatthours implies about 115 billion kilowatthours of additional generation in 2026 compared with 2025.

Solar's share of US electricity generation is projected at 8% in 2026 and 10% in 2027, after 7% in 2025. Natural gas is forecast at 40% of generation in 2026 and 39% in 2027. Coal's share is put at 15% in both years, after 17% in 2025. Nuclear remains at 18% and conventional hydropower at 6%.

US coal consumption is forecast to fall by 7% to 419 million short tons in 2026, and by another 5% in 2027. Coal production decreases by 2% this year, as rising exports partly offset the drop in consumption, and by a further 4% in 2027 as consumption decreases and exports remain flat. The outlook cites China's commitment to purchase 10 million metric tons of US coal in both 2027 and 2028.

The Administration finalised the forecast inputs on 5 November 2026 and published the outlook on 10 November. The next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on 8 December 2026.