Thirteen of 195: The 2035 Climate Target Deadline Passes With Most Large Emitters Yet to File

The Paris Agreement requires each party to submit a new nationally determined contribution, or NDC, every five years. The third round, covering targets for 2035, was due by 10 February 2025. When the deadline passed, only 13 of the 195 parties had filed, according to Carbon Brief's count, the International Institute for Environment and Development and the UN Economic Commission for Africa. The 13 were the United States, Brazil, Uruguay, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Singapore, New Zealand, the Marshall Islands, Andorra, Saint Lucia, Ecuador and Zimbabwe.

Some trackers reported slightly different figures depending on how late-evening submissions were counted. The 10 February date was set by the 2023 global stocktake at COP28 in Dubai, and placed nine months before COP30 in Belém. In practice, the deadline is not enforceable, and the UN Development Programme has noted that the cut-off for inclusion in the UNFCCC synthesis report is September 2025. For energy markets, the content of these early submissions is less important than what is still missing.

When a major economy files a new target, analysts revise their pledges scenarios. Many developing country NDCs are written in two parts: an unconditional target the country will pursue with its own resources, and a conditional target that depends on international finance. For countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and others with high exposure to floods, heat and drought, the conditional part of an NDC often includes both emissions cuts and adaptation measures. In most NDCs, the power sector carries the largest share of near-term emissions cuts, because the technologies to decarbonise electricity are mature and often cheaper than new fossil generation on a lifetime cost basis.

For each, the questions that matter for energy markets are whether the target is absolute or intensity-based, whether it covers all greenhouse gases or only carbon dioxide, whether there are sector-specific commitments for power or transport, and whether it is backed by a domestic policy instrument such as a carbon market.