Transition Economics Institute
TEI Quarterly Outlook
Each quarter the Transition Economics Institute reviews oil and the Strait of Hormuz, global LNG and gas, US power markets, data centres and load growth, Pakistan's power and gas sectors, China, India, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and critical minerals, and sets out what to watch in the quarter ahead. Every figure is drawn from published sources listed in each issue. Outlook views are framed as scenarios with stated assumptions.
TEI Quarterly Outlook · Q3 2026
The second closure and a diesel winter
30 September 2026
The June memorandum did not hold. Renewed fighting closed the Strait again in July, attacks reached the Red Sea bypass, and the shortage has moved from crude to diesel. A partial reopening in September leaves the system with thinner buffers than at any point since the war began.
TEI Quarterly Outlook · Q2 2026
A ceasefire is not yet a recovery
30 June 2026
The Strait of Hormuz is starting to reopen under an interim US-Iran agreement. Inventories, LNG capacity and the finances of importing countries will take far longer to repair than the shipping lanes.
TEI Quarterly Outlook · Q1 2026
The Strait closes
31 March 2026
A war in the Gulf has turned a well-supplied oil and LNG market into the largest supply emergency on record. Importers are now rationing, releasing stocks and paying for a shock they had little room to prepare for.
TEI Quarterly Outlook · Q4 2025
Plenty of molecules, too few megawatts
30 December 2025
Oil and LNG enter 2026 with supply running ahead of demand. Power grids, capacity markets and mineral supply chains are where the strain now sits.