New York's Large Load Queue Tops 10,000 MW as Its Oldest Plants Near the End

New York's grid operator found no actionable reliability needs in its latest ten-year plan. It also said that result "should not be mistaken for long-term system adequacy." The New York Independent System Operator's 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan describes a system where the margin for error is extremely narrow and most plausible futures point to significant shortfalls within a decade. The plan says most large load requests come from semiconductor plants and data centers other than cryptocurrency mining, and their developers say their operations are not flexible.

The reliability plan shows how far the queue has run ahead of the forecast. "Though not every project will materialize, the speed and scale of these requests far outpace the development of new supply," the plan says. Because it is impossible to know which projects will be built, the NYISO tested three bookends. In its baseline analysis, the NYISO assumed cryptocurrency mining and hydrogen production would be flexible during summer and winter peaks, consistent with earlier studies.

Across the range of assumptions in the plan, the operator found that the factors affecting supply and demand could stack up to produce either sufficient surpluses or deficiencies of up to 10,000 MW. To reflect that risk, the NYISO identified about 3,000 MW of existing conventional fossil generation as likely to be unavailable by 2034, roughly 60% of it in New York City. The plan follows the 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment, which found a need in New York City starting in summer 2033 and growing to a deficiency of 97 MW for three hours on the peak day in 2034.

"We continue to observe declining reliability margins while forecasting a dramatic increase in load," said Rich Dewey, the NYISO's president and chief executive, when Power Trends was released. The plan points to market rules as one way to turn large loads from a risk into a resource.