After a Year of Reform Rhetoric: Is Circular Debt Flow Actually Slowing?

December 2025 is a fair month to ask whether Pakistan’s energy reform rhetoric changed circular-debt flow. Tariff notifications continued. IPP talks proceeded. Captive gas policy lurched. Solar politics oscillated. The only verdict that matters is whether CPPA-G’s payable cycle and DISCO collections improved enough to stop the stock from climbing for non-accounting reasons. Stock can fall because of one-off fiscal injections, debt re-profiling, or surcharge mechanisms that move liabilities into another pocket. Capacity payment renegotiation should by now show up as a lower capacity component in the power purchase price.

The EFF review cycle will ask these questions with more leverage than domestic op-eds. Looking into 2026, the agenda is known: DISCO transactions, net-metering regime reset, LNG reopeners, IGCEP approval.