NERC Puts PJM on a Path to High Risk by 2029 as Data Centers Drive 224 GW of Growth

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation's annual 10-year outlook, released in January, has a simple headline: demand is rising faster than the resources planned to meet it, and data centers are the main reason. The 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment forecasts that summer peak demand across its assessment areas will rise by more than 224 GW over the next decade, 69% higher than last year's 10-year growth projection of 132 GW. Winter peak demand is expected to grow by 245 GW.

NERC finds that 13 of its 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years. NERC classifies the region as elevated risk from 2026 to 2028 and high risk from 2029 onward. According to the assessment, demand for electricity in PJM is growing at its fastest pace in years, driven primarily by data centers, followed by electrification and manufacturing. PJM expects its summer peak to grow by 56 GW to 210 GW in 2035, and its winter peak to climb by 62 GW to 198 GW by winter 2034 to 2035.

On the supply side, NERC describes an extreme and rapid tightening of capacity in the near term because of generator retirements and project delays. NERC notes that PJM has about 30,000 MW of generation in its transitional interconnection queue to be processed in 2026, and that the new cycle process opening in April offers one- to two-year review timelines. The expedited resource programs that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved in late summer 2025 for MISO, PJM and SPP could change the picture.

NERC also notes that ERCOT and PJM have each prepared revised load forecasts since the assessment's data collection period, which were too late for this report. For PJM's states and customers, the message is that the next three years are tight and the years after that are tighter.