New England Is the Grid the Data Center Boom Skipped

Every major U.S. grid operator now has to forecast demand from data centers and other very large customers. ISO New England has done so for the first time, and its answer stands out: almost nothing is coming. The operator's 2026-2035 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission, known as the CELT Report and published May 1, includes a large load forecast for the first time. Survey data from transmission owners suggest New England has just two proposed large load projects in the formal study phase, with combined demand of 285 MW at most, ISO New England said in a May 18 explainer.

The large load component is one of six building blocks in the forecast, alongside base demand in homes and businesses, electric vehicles, heating electrification, behind-the-meter solar and batteries paired with that solar. To qualify for the forecast, a project must be larger than 20 MW in expected nameplate capacity and must have entered a formal study agreement with a transmission owner, according to the operator's March 27 presentation to its Load Forecast Committee. The nameplate numbers are then cut to reflect what is likely to be built and used.

"There's a lot of work going on to get up to speed in this domain, and that's going to continue as the forecast evolves," said Victoria Rojo, ISO New England's load forecasting supervisor. ISO New England's March presentation put it plainly: "To date, New England has not witnessed the scale of data center proposals seen in other regions of the country." The forecast is slightly lower than last year's because of more conservative assumptions about electric vehicle and heat pump adoption in light of government policy changes.

The operator does not explain why developers have stayed away, and its forecast documents focus on method rather than market conditions. For now, New England's planners are preparing for a boom that has not arrived.