India Doubles Its Data Centre Load Forecast as the Gas Peaker Fleet Runs Dry
India's Ministry of Power told Parliament on 27 July that artificial intelligence data centres will add 26.3 GW of electricity load by 2031-32. That is almost double the 13.56 GW the government projected only in March. On 24 September, policy and energy specialists used the new number to argue that the facilities must become flexible customers rather than another block of inflexible demand. The timing matters because the resource India normally uses to handle sharp evening ramps, its gas-fired fleet, spent the spring and summer short of fuel after the conflict in West Asia cut deliveries of LNG under long-term contracts.
According to The Indian Express, the 26.3 GW estimate is built from projects that states have received, and the ministry is consulting state transmission utilities, distribution companies and developers on supply, transmission and grid balancing. Officials told the paper that data centre load "could be very spiky and have sharp ramps". The Hindu BusinessLine reported that about 17 GW of connectivity applications have already been filed with State Transmission Utilities. It added that the extra data centre load could push national peak demand beyond 388 GW by 2031-32.
India had about 375 MW of data centre capacity in 2020 and around 1.5 GW by 2025, The Indian Express reported. Transmission utilities have to decide which connection requests to back with substations and lines before anyone knows how many will be built. The Hormuz disruption hit the part of the Indian system that copes with ramps. Gas is a small share of Indian generation, but the paper noted that around 10 GW of gas-fired capacity is typically relied upon during the summer peak, when solar output falls in the evening.
The ministry's description of data centre load, spiky and with sharp ramps, describes the very job the gas fleet does. The Indian Express also reported policy discussions about locating data centres away from urban centres to avoid transmission congestion, and some support for siting them near renewable sources. Maharashtra offers a concrete example of how states are handling the wires.