From Surplus to Scarcity: Pakistan's LNG Book Heading into Winter 2026-27
Ten months ago, Pakistan's problem with liquefied natural gas was that it had too much of it. In December 2025 the Petroleum Division approved an Annual Delivery Plan for 2026 that sent 35 contracted cargoes abroad: 24 from Qatar under the Net Proceeds Differential clause and 11 from Eni under a negotiated settlement with Pakistan LNG Limited. Officials at the time said that even after those diversions the country would be left with 13 surplus cargoes in 2026, because national gas consumption had fallen by more than 400 million cubic feet a day.
Locally produced gas had been curtailed for months because the transmission network was too full to take it. QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on deliveries to Pakistan until 6 November, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik confirmed at the end of September, citing continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The speed of that turn is the main lesson of the year. A portfolio that looked over-contracted in a calm market looks thin the moment its main supplier cannot ship.
The disruption began with the attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex on 2 March 2026. According to figures reported from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's monthly price calculations, Pakistan received 11 cargoes under the Qatar arrangement between March and September 2026, against 64 Qatar-linked cargoes in the same seven months of 2025. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics recorded LNG imports of $364.1 million in July and August 2026, down 28.3 per cent from $508 million a year earlier.
Power Minister Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari said in September that the disruption had pushed spot prices to between $23 and $25 per million British thermal units. With two Qatari cargoes in the calculation and no spot purchases, OGRA cut RLNG prices by about a fifth month on month. The price swing tells you what the long-term contracts are actually worth. In 2025 the 13.37 per cent slope was the subject of renegotiation because it looked expensive against a soft market.
Each of those allocations has a different cost if it is cut. Households are being protected in principle, and officials have indicated that domestic consumers would receive priority in a severe shortage. Transition Economics Institute's view this October is that Pakistan should not draw the wrong conclusion from either half of the year. The second is a winter allocation plan published before the cold arrives. The current winter will be managed with the tools at hand: diplomacy to secure Qatari passage, spot purchases where affordable, furnace oil at the evening peak, and rationing for households and industry.