OPEC+ Holds November Quotas as Gulf Output Still Trails the Paper Target
Seven OPEC+ producers kept their November oil production ceilings unchanged after a short virtual meeting on Sunday, 4 October. The group that manages the remaining voluntary cuts, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, said it would carry September 2026 required production into November and hold its next review on 1 November. It also leaves a gap between paper quotas and barrels that can actually leave the Gulf. According to the OPEC statement, the seven countries decided to maintain September 2026 required production for November.
Russia's November quota stands at 9.949 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia's at 10.478 million, Iraq's at 4.431 million, Kuwait's at 2.676 million, Kazakhstan's at 1.628 million, Algeria's at 1.007 million and Oman's at 841,000 barrels a day, identical to the September and October figures reported by TASS from the same decision. A separate Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee also met on Sunday to review the market. The freeze sits on top of a year in which OPEC+ raised output targets for several months and then paused.
OPEC data cited in that coverage put August output from the seven at 25 million barrels a day, up 630,000 barrels a day from July and still about 5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels in February. Brent crude was still above $100 a barrel at the time of the meeting, up from about $73 before the Iran war began in late February, according to the same Reuters account. Prices had eased after European leaders agreed to a US request to release diesel reserves, but the absolute level remained elevated.
On the other side, Gulf governments that can move crude through Red Sea or East-West pipeline routes have some room to raise physical exports without changing the formal ceiling. For buyers in Asia and Europe, the practical question is not the 31 million barrel headline. A hold after a run of target increases is a signal of caution, not of spare barrels waiting to be released. Three markers will show whether the hold is a pause or a plateau.