Wind and Solar Overtake Coal Capacity in China: A Milestone That Changes the Dispatch Debate

Two data releases this summer marked a turn in China's power sector. On 23 July the China Electricity Council reported that grid-connected wind and solar capacity had reached 1,180 GW at the end of June, 38.4 per cent of the national fleet, against 1,170 GW of coal. It was the first time new energy capacity had exceeded coal. Then the National Energy Administration's July statistics showed combined wind and solar capacity of about 1,210 GW, roughly 740 GW of solar and 470 GW of wind.

That figure crosses the 1,200 GW goal China set for 2030 in its 2021 climate pledge, six years early. In the first half of 2024 China added 134 GW of renewable capacity, up 24 per cent year on year and 88 per cent of all new capacity. Renewables produced 1,560 TWh in the first half, about 35.1 per cent of total generation. The July additions were 21.05 GW of solar, down slightly from June, bringing the year-to-date solar total to 123.53 GW.

When China pledged 1,200 GW of wind and solar by 2030, its fleet stood at around 414 GW. The target was criticised at the time as too modest, and it has now proved to be so by a wide margin. When coal dominated capacity, Chinese grid operators planned the system around coal. At 38 per cent of capacity, wind and solar output in some hours will exceed demand in some provinces. China's coal capacity payment, in force since January 2024, is a step in that direction.

The CEC figures show power investment by key companies of 598.1 billion yuan in the first half, up 10.6 per cent. The overtaking of coal by wind and solar in capacity terms is a genuine milestone, and the early achievement of the 2030 target confirms that China's clean energy build is running far ahead of its policy commitments.